Could "The Dark Knight Rises" sell more tickets on its opening weekend than "
The Avengers" but still wind up making less money at the box office?
If it does, 3D -- or the lack of it in the case of "The Dark Knight Rises" -- would be the culprit.
"
Dark Knight Rises"
director Christopher Nolan has been among the loudest critics of
Hollywood's rush to 3D, claiming it degrades the creative and viewing
experience. "It's all about the money," he t
old the PGA's Produced By conference in May.
Just how much it's about the money could come into sharp focus starting Thursday midnight.
The last of three blockbuster Batman movies Nolan has made for Warner Bros., "
Dark Knight Rises"
is expected by analysts to open somewhere between $170 million and $195
million. That would make it the best U.S. opening ever-- for a non-3D
movie.
Also read: 'The Dark Knight Rises to Detective Comics: Batman Through the Years'
If so, that "best debut ever" honor would still belong to Disney and Marvel's "
The Avengers,"
which bowed to $207 million in the first week in May. About 52 percent
of that total came from premium --aka more expensive-- 3D tickets. That
adds up to about an extra $20 million, and while "
Dark Knight Rises" will be on 332 premium-priced Imax screens, that could be the difference between the two films' first weekends.
"
The Avengers" bowed
on 4,349 screens in all, 3,364 of which were 3D, along with 275 Imax.
"The Dark Knight Rises" will be in 4,404 theaters and 3,700 will offer
midnight Thursday screenings.
Of course it isn't all about the opening weekend. Critics have been nearly rapturous over "
Dark Knight Rises,"
with Christian Bale reprising the title role, and the film has cast a
giant shadow on the cultural landscape all summer. The most conservative
observers foresee a long and lucrative run both here and abroad.
Also read: AMC Adds 'Dark Knight Rises' Midnight Shows, Marathon Screenings to Meet Demand
But the smashing success of "
The Avengers" and "
Dark Knight Rises"
will define the Hollywood's summer of 2012. And while executives at
Warner Bros. and Disney are loathe to make any comparisons, it's hard to
imagine bragging rights aren't on their minds.
And even with considerations surrounding 3D aside, most industry observers think "
Dark Knight Rises" will have a tough time matching the opening and overall numbers put up by "
The Avengers."
Also read: 'The Dark Knight Rises' Review: Falls Short of Bat-Legendary
"It was a perfect storm," Jeff Bock, senior analyst at Exhibitor
Relations told TheWrap. "You had an audience primed for the summer's
first big event, (director) Joss Whedon was making his debut and all the
heat of the previous Marvel movies sort of culminated. It just clicked
with audiences, even whole families, and it seemed to have just the
right tone for a summer popcorn movie."
"
Dark Knight Rises"
has certainly built anticipation, evidenced by its huge presales. And
the buzz surrounding Nolan's final entry in his Batman trilogy -- "
Batman Begins" and "
The Dark Knight"
were the first two -- has been near fever-pitch for weeks. But the
relentlessly dark and gritty tone of the film, which is at the core of
its appeal to many adults, might cut both ways at the box office.
Also read: First 'Dark Knight Rises' Review: Holy Hyperbole, Batman!
"I doubt it will keep anyone away the first weekend," said Bock, "but
it could cut into family and repeat business, both of which helped "The
Avengers' significantly."
The last Batman movie, "
The Dark Knight,"
was a huge financial success. With a production budget of around $185
million, it opened to $158 million in July, 2008 and went on to make
$533 million domestically and more than $1 billion worldwide. That was a
huge jump from the Nolan's first Batman film, "
Batman Begins," which made $205 million after opening to $48 million.
The death six months before the opening of actor Heath
Ledger, who was playing The Joker, the most iconic of Batman villains,
spiked media and public interest in "
The Dark Knight."
Also read: Can Bane Measure Up to The Joker in 'Dark Knight Rises'?
Tom Hardy, a newcomer to the cast along with Anne Hathaway, Marion
Cotillard and Joseph Gordon-Levitt, has been front and center as
fearsome bad guy Bane (
above) in trailers for "
Dark Knight Rises."
But no matter how scary and fierce Hardy's Bane might be, it's hard to
imagine he will capture the hearts and minds of moviegoers – or send
them to the box office -- as did Ledger. The Australian actor was
posthumously awarded the supporting actor Oscar for his role as the
Clown Prince of Crime.
Another hurdle facing "
The Dark Knight" in its pursuit of "
The Avengers"
is its running time of 2 hours, 45 minutes, as compared to 2 hours, 22
minutes for the Marvel film. That will cut into the number of times the
film can be shown in a theater.
"If you have it playing 24 hours a day to packed houses, and I'm sure
many theaters will," Bock said, "the numbers of times it can be
screened could be at last one fewer per day. And that adds up."
Don't shed any tears for Nolan, Warner Bros. or the film's financier
Legendary Entertainment, though. "The Dark Knight Rises" is expected to
be among, if not the, most lucrative entry in the eight-film franchise,
which has brought in more than $2.6 billion since it began with "
Batman" in 1989.
And if "The Dark Knight Rises" opens to anything over $169 million --
the pre-"Avengers" record set by WB's "Harry Potter and the Deathly
Hallows, Part 2" -- no one at Warmers will be unhappy.
Even if they're No. 2, with a 2D asterisk.